What is MMC Kinostat?

Created by MMC Film and New Media Groups, the MMC Kinostat program assists our film investment staff in evaluating the profit potential of film scripts short-listed for production by our clients and investment partners.

While the cost of producing a film can generally be determined with some degree of accuracy, estimating the box-office gross of the result can be difficult. Even heavily promoted and expensive films often do poorly at the box office.

At the same time, in contrast with estimates relating to financial markets, box-office gross estimates do not require any specialized knowledge of the business of making films: just as one can judge the quality of car by driving it, so one can judge the quality of film without any specialized knowledge of how it was produced.

With this in mind, we created Kinostat to help us identify individuals among the general population who are capable of arriving at accurate estimates of box-office gross numbers for films released by major studios. We select the most accurate individuals from this pool to help us evaluate the profit potential of film scripts under consideration for development.

What motivated MMC to start the Kinostat program?

We designed the Kinostat program to reflect three core beliefs:

• We don't think you should need to know someone in the business to get started in script development. Everyone here competes on an even playing field, and talent wins the day.

• We don't think you need a past in script development to build a future in script development. Show us your skills as an analyst, and we will help you reach your potential as a reader, editor, and writer.

• We want people who don't take no for an answer. First estimates miss the mark? Learn from them and keep at it. As you improve, prior mistakes will no longer affect your record. The Kinostat program exists not only to test your skills, but to help you develop them.

How does the reader selection process work?

We select script readers solely on the basis of how accurately the candidate can estimate the U.S. box-office gross of major film releases. Successful candidates universally demonstrate the ability to ascertain accurately the promise of a new film based on the limited information available from its trailer and synopsis, including themes, plot and subject matter. It has been our experience that these individuals invariably make fine script readers, and those selected constitute by any criteria an elite group.

Who is eligible to enroll in the reader candidate program?

Any individual of at least 18 years of age is welcome to enroll in the candidate program by registering at kinostat.com. We do not discriminate based on nationality, past experience, or any other such criterion. Candidates may participate for as long as they wish. Indeed, more than a few people appear to participate simply on account of the fact that they find the process of making box-office predictions to be an entertaining means to keep in touch with the tastes of the movie-going public.

How do I get started?

To participate, please register an account at kinostat.com and log in. You will see a list of films scheduled for imminent release, next to each of which are links to the film's synopsis and trailer, user comments regarding the film, and an estimate entry field. Once you have viewed the film's trailer and read the synopsis, enter your estimate for the film's U.S. box-office gross into the entry field, and then click 'Submit Estimates'. You may re-submit your estimate for a given film as often as you like up to the listed estimate closing date for that film.

Once a film's U.S. box-office gross is available, your estimate will be ranked along with the estimates of all other participants. The average accuracy of all the estimates you provide determines your rank among all participants. If you rank in the top 40 users and have provided estimates for at least 20 recent films, we will offer you paid work reading scripts we have short-listed for production.

What factors should be taken into account when determining box-office estimates?

Common benchmarks for making box-office estimates are: the quality of the script (which can often be roughly determined from the quality of the trailer, the synopsis, and the quality of previous work from the script's writers), the background of the script (is it based on a popular book or television series? is it a sequel in a popular franchise?), the real-world context of the film (does it involve events or stories of particular significance to broad segments of the population, such as religious groups? does it concern current world events or address fears, beliefs or desires that will resonate among the general population?).

Also important, although statistically less relevant than competing factors, are the film's budget and the actors and director involved in the project. The time of year, and films opening on or near the film's date of release, can also prove useful indicators of a film's potential box-office result. Finally, it can be instructive (but is also often misleading) to consider the box-office gross of similar films (available here).

The following fascinating article from the New Yorker magazine may provide those interested with considerable useful information regarding box-office gross estimation as a means of identifying profitable scripts:

THE FORMULA: What if you built a machine to predict hit movies?

Are estimates to be provided for lifetime U.S. box-office gross, or for first 30-day U.S. box-office gross?

Estimates are to be provided for U.S. box-office gross over the first 30 days of release. (A film that opens in wide release tends to bring in from about 75% to 95% of its total box-office gross during the first 30 days, with blockbusters coming in at the low end of this range, and smaller films coming in at the high end.)

What is the minimum number of estimates a candidate must provide in order to be eligible for paid work?

A candidate must have provided estimates for a minimum of 20 films in order to be eligible for paid work as a script reader. These estimates must have been provided no more than six months prior to the current date.

At any given time, approximately 10 films are open to new estimates, and we generally post two or three new films for estimates each week. Therefore it typically takes about six weeks for a candidate to provide the 20 estimates necessary for a ladder ranking.

What happens if I do not provide an estimate for a particular film?

If you leave a film's estimate box at $0 and estimates for the film close (as each film does on the closing date listed for it), no estimate will be recorded. You will not be penalized. However this film will not count toward the total necessary to maintain a ladder ranking.

How many people get chosen to review scripts, and how frequently?

We take a minimum of 40 users from the top of the ladder to review film scripts and provide box office estimates every eight weeks. The exact number depends upon the number of scripts we have available. Only ranked users are eligible to review scripts.

What do the numbers in the Ranking stats box mean?

The Ranking stats box gives you estimate performance feedback as follows:

• The Rank value indicates your numerical rank relative to all other current and prospective script analysts. This number will be listed as N/A (not applicable) until you have provided estimates for at least 20 films whose box office results have been posted in the Results section.
• The Percentile value indicates your percentile rank. For example, a percentile value of 70% means that you rank higher than approximately 70% of ranked analysts. This value will also be listed as N/A until you have provided estimates for at least 20 films whose box office results have been posted in the Results section.
• The Average Error value indicates how close your estimates have been to the actual box-office grosses of the films for which you have provided an estimate. For example, if your average error is 40%, that means that the average difference between your estimate and the actual box-office gross of the relevant film is 40% of the size of this actual box-office gross itself.

Do I need to maintain a ladder ranking after I have been selected to review scripts?

We re-evaluate our roster of script readers every eight weeks. Generally, at the end of each interval, a small number of users previously ranked in the top 40 are replaced by an equal number of users who were not previously ranked, but whose accuracy justifies their selection.

How many scripts does a reviewer receive in an average month?

Every eight weeks we select about 40 of the most successful participants to help estimate potential box-office returns for scripts currently under consideration by our partners. Successful candidates will have the option to evaluate between three and five scripts per week.

How much work is involved per script, and what is the compensation?

Evaluators will be compensated up to $250 per script, depending upon the evaluator's experience and the level of feedback requested, ranging from a short standardized form to a close written analysis. Evaluations generally take from 1.5 to 2 hours each. (If evaluating a script takes longer than that, it typically means the script is hopeless.)

Do I need to be located in the U.S. to participate?

Evaluators need not live in the U.S., but must speak fluent English and should ideally possess high-level writing skills.

How do I increase/decrease the number of listing emails I receive?

You can change the frequency of listing emails (or turn them off) by selecting the relevant option under your account settings.

What is your Privacy Policy?

At MMC, we take your privacy seriously. Our Privacy Policy is available here.

Whom do I contact if I have a question that is not answered above?

Please send further questions, suggestions, or information about technical problems to the site administrator at this address.